1.0 - Who We Are and How We Work
The Investment Society Lausanne is a student-run, non-profit investment fund established in 2019, operating on the UNIL-EPFL campus. As the largest fund of its kind in the Lausanne region, it offers students from the University of Lausanne (UNIL) and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology of Lausanne (EPFL) the opportunity to gain hands-on experience in investment management. The society's mission is to unite students passionate about investment, help them develop practical skills applicable to real markets, and prepare them for careers in the buy-side industry. Additionally, the society collaborates with industry professionals and firms on research projects and facilitates access to career opportunities within the investment sector.
Organizational Structure and Operations
Members of the Investment Society are organized into seven specialized teams, each focusing on a specific sector:
Basic Materials and Energy: Focuses on commodities such as petroleum, natural gas, minerals, and other natural resources.
Financial Services: Covers industries like banking, insurance, asset management, and financial technology (fintech).
Industrials: Encompasses sectors including aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding, machinery, and related fields.
Consumption and General Public Services: Addresses consumer-oriented industries and public service sectors, including cosmetics, electronics, and other essential services.
Healthcare: Focuses on healthcare services, pharmaceutical companies, medical equipment manufacturers, and related fields.
Technology and Network Equipment: Dedicated to telecommunications, network equipment sectors, semiconductors, software programming, and information technologies.
Digital Assets: Centers on cryptocurrencies, blockchain technologies, decentralized finance (DeFi), and related areas such as NFTs and digital infrastructure.
Each team comprises analysts led by an elected portfolio manager. Together, they analyze markets, select stocks, manage equities, and pitch investment ideas across sectors. This structure allows members to specialize in specific industries, gaining in-depth knowledge and practical experience in managing real financial assets.
Educational Initiatives and Partnerships
The society emphasizes education through practical involvement and collaboration. Members engage in activities such as investment bootcamps and think tanks, often in partnership with industry professionals. A notable collaboration is with RH Asset Management SA, providing members with opportunities to learn long-term value investing directly from professionals. These initiatives are designed to bridge the gap between academic knowledge and real-world application, equipping students with the skills necessary to excel in the investment industry.
Values and Legacy
The Investment Society Lausanne is guided by core values of passion, commitment, diversity, community, integrity, and sustainability. These principles drive the society's decisions and actions within and beyond the organization. Since its inception, the society has grown significantly, boasting over 35 active members, managing assets under management (AuM) of CHF 20,000, and engaging more than 2,000 event participants. The dedication and perseverance of its founding members have established a legacy of excellence, with alumni advancing to prominent roles in the finance industry.
Our alumni
2.0 - 2024 Equity Market Recap
Technology:
Technology was the dominant sector of 2024, leading global markets higher with massive gains driven by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor innovation. AI-related companies saw explosive growth, as businesses ramped up investment in machine learning, data centers, and high-performance computing. Semiconductor stocks surged as demand for advanced chips skyrocketed, with major technology firms competing to secure AI-processing capabilities. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants delivered exceptional gains, contributing disproportionately to overall market performance. Cloud computing and digital advertising remained strong, while cost-cutting measures implemented in 2023 helped boost profit margins across the sector. Interest rate stability further supported valuations, allowing high-growth tech stocks to extend their gains. However, regulatory pressures intensified, with increasing scrutiny over AI, antitrust practices, and cybersecurity risks. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China also led to new restrictions on semiconductor exports, impacting global supply chains. Despite these risks, the sector’s earnings growth and innovation-driven momentum kept investor sentiment bullish. While valuations became stretched by year-end, technology stocks remained the primary driver of the global equity rally, reinforcing their leadership in financial markets.
Financials:
The financial sector rebounded strongly in 2024, benefiting from an improving economic outlook and attractive valuations. The sector posted one of the strongest returns of the year, with banks, insurers, and asset managers all seeing strong earnings growth. Early in the year, higher interest rates supported bank net interest margins, but as inflation eased and central banks signaled potential rate cuts, long-term bond yields declined, leading to a steeper yield curve.
This shift helped banks by stabilizing funding costs while boosting lending demand. Investment banking saw a recovery, with M&A and IPO activity picking up as market confidence improved. However, challenges remained—regional banks continued to face pressure from exposure to commercial real estate, and tighter lending standards weighed on credit availability. While U.S. financials benefited from expectations of deregulation and strong consumer balance sheets, European banks struggled with stricter capital requirements and sluggish economic growth. The sector remained relatively undervalued compared to broader markets, attracting value investors. Overall, financial stocks performed well as systemic risks faded, earnings remained resilient, and investor confidence in economic stability grew.
Basic Materials and Energy:
The Basic Materials and Energy sectors faced a challenging 2024, weighed down by weak commodity markets, fluctuating energy prices, and sluggish global demand. Oil prices were volatile, averaging in the low-$70s per barrel, as OPEC+ output cuts were offset by rising U.S. production and weaker consumption growth, particularly in China. Energy equities delivered modest returns, underpinned by strong cash flows but limited by declining forward price expectations. The clean energy sector struggled due to high capital costs and slower-than-expected adoption of renewable projects. Basic Materials was the worst-performing sector globally, as China’s economic slowdown dampened demand for metals and chemicals, leading to price declines across key industrial commodities. The sector also saw increased consolidation, with major oil and mining companies pursuing acquisitions to improve efficiencies and strengthen supply chains. Investors remained cautious, with valuations staying at historically low levels despite stable profitability. While energy companies continued share buybacks and dividend distributions, sentiment in basic materials remained weak due to concerns over prolonged oversupply and slow global industrial growth.
Industrials:
The Industrials sector experienced a year of moderate growth, supported by infrastructure spending, defense contracts, and automation investments. Government-funded infrastructure projects in the U.S. and Europe provided a boost to construction and manufacturing companies, while rising defense budgets globally fueled demand for aerospace and military equipment. The ongoing trend of reshoring manufacturing led to increased capital investment in industrial automation and robotics, benefiting companies specializing in smart factories and AI-driven production systems. However, global trade growth remained subdued, weighing on logistics and transportation firms, particularly in freight and shipping. High interest rates slowed commercial equipment purchases and large-scale construction projects, particularly in Europe, where industrial production remained weak. Despite these challenges, U.S. industrial stocks performed well, driven by strong earnings in aerospace and automation, while European industrial firms lagged due to economic stagnation. Overall, industrials delivered solid but unspectacular returns, with valuations rising slightly as investor confidence in long-term government spending programs and supply chain resilience initiatives grew.
Consumption & General Public Services:
Consumer-related stocks experienced a mixed 2024, with discretionary sectors outperforming while staples and mass-market retail lagged. Strong labor markets and wage growth supported consumer spending, especially among high-income households, driving strong performances in luxury goods, travel, and e-commerce. The consumer discretionary sector was among the year’s best performers, boosted by robust demand for experiences, premium brands, and digital services. However, higher interest rates put pressure on big-ticket purchases such as automobiles and housing, slowing growth in those segments. Mass-market retailers struggled as inflation remained elevated, squeezing margins and limiting price increases. In contrast, consumer staples underperformed relative to the broader market, as investors rotated into growth stocks, preferring companies with higher earnings potential. Regional differences were significant—U.S. consumer stocks outperformed those in Europe, where energy costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment, while China’s slow recovery dampened demand for global consumer brands. Looking ahead, companies with strong pricing power and digital strategies were favored, while firms dependent on price-sensitive consumers faced headwinds.
Healthcare:
Healthcare stocks underperformed in 2024, as investors rotated out of defensive sectors and into higher-growth opportunities. While healthcare fundamentals remained strong, with steady demand and medical innovation driving revenue growth, the sector’s stock performance lagged behind. Pharmaceutical companies benefited from major breakthroughs in obesity and diabetes treatments, but regulatory pressures, including drug price negotiations and reimbursement changes, created uncertainty. Biotech firms saw mixed results, as rising borrowing costs made financing more expensive, limiting investment in speculative drug development. Large pharmaceutical firms continued their trend of acquiring smaller biotech companies to replenish their pipelines, leading to a strong year for M&A. Healthcare services and medical device companies recovered from the post-pandemic slowdown, as elective procedures and hospital visits normalized. However, investors were hesitant to pay premium valuations for slow-growing healthcare firms when other sectors were delivering stronger returns. While healthcare earnings remained stable, stock performance was muted, with many companies trading at a discount relative to their historical averages. The sector remains a long-term defensive play, but in 2024, it struggled to attract significant investor interest amid a risk-on market environment.
3.0 - The Investment Society Lausanne in 2024
Introduction
In 2024, Investment Society Lausanne experienced a transformative year marked by impactful events, strategic board transitions, and outstanding fund performance. Our activities, led by dedicated teams and enhanced by fruitful partnerships, have not only strengthened our community but also delivered exceptional financial results.
Event Highlights
During the spring semester, our association launched the year with a French-language conference titled “Investments & Strategy: Real Estate Funds.” Held on March 7, 2024, this event drew 100 participants and featured industry leaders from Procimmo and PwC—Arno Kneubühler (CEO, Procimmo SA), Besnik Bytyqi (CFO, Procimmo SA), and Jean-Sébastien Lassonde (Partner, PwC).
In addition, we hosted two major events in collaboration with HSBC. The first, on May 8, 2024, focused on HSBC’s private banking operations in Geneva. Key speakers—Jean-Louis Guiderdoni (Managing Director, Credit Advisor Specialist), Emma Gatti (Associate, Human Resources), Georgios Leontaris (CIO), and Konstantinos Arditsoglou (Managing Director, Senior Relationship Manager)—presented insights into the bank’s activities while promoting internship opportunities. A second session on October 31, 2024, further enriched the discussion with additional insights from Sabrina-Janna Zeyher (Associate Director, Fixed Income Advisor) and Svetlana Sokovykh (Client Service Executive).
Our partners at RH Asset Management significantly enriched our event calendar. They first organized an innovative “Think Tank” weekend, where participants pitched investment opportunities before a discerning jury—with a potential internship opportunity as the prize. Later, the “Equity Bootcamp” on November 20, 2024, equipped attendees with practical skills to identify undervalued stocks, underlining our commitment to both career development and hands-on investment education.
Board Leadership and Transition
The spring semester of 2024 was led by President Selim Grar and Vice President João Gomes. Under their guidance, our society grew to over 40 active members from UNIL, EPFL, and EHL. Their tenure was marked by robust event programming and strong community engagement, which laid a solid foundation for our future endeavors.
A significant transition occurred between the spring and autumn semesters. Embracing a vision for enhanced quality and strategic refinement, the board underwent restructuring with the appointment of Ryan Chapuis as President and Pierre Siomash as Vice President. These changes included streamlining our membership and recruitment processes to foster higher quality interactions and sharper investment strategies. An initiative introduced during this period was the monthly Macro Review—a concise one-page summary developed by Vice President Pierre Siomash, Head of Investment Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, and Fund Manager & Treasurer Jeremy Kündig. This review has effectively provided our members with a clear narrative of financial market trends, ensuring that our investment proposals remain aligned with real-time market dynamics.
Digital Transformation and Future Outlook
Complementing these organizational changes, we launched a new website aimed at refreshing our image and boosting our digital presence. This digital transformation is central to our strategy for increasing engagement, expanding our reach, and keeping our community well-informed about our initiatives.
Looking ahead, our goals remain focused on building upon the momentum of 2024. We plan to organize more focused and timely events, enhance our presence on social media, and continue delivering the insightful monthly Macro Reviews. This annual report is just the beginning of a series of updates designed to keep our members and stakeholders informed as we pursue new opportunities and drive the mission of Investment Society Lausanne forward.
Fund Performance Overview
Our fund, denominated in CHF, delivered an impressive performance in 2024, achieving a Time-Weighted Return (TWR) of 21.04% and a Money-Weighted Return (MWR) of 20.24%. This outstanding performance allowed us to outperform the Swiss Market Index (SMI) over the same period, reflecting our robust investment strategy and deep market insight.
Sector Analysis
A detailed analysis of our portfolio reveals that the technology sector led our growth, buoyed by relentless innovation and rising global demand for digital solutions. The Financial Services sector also contributed strongly, benefiting from stable market conditions and strategic positioning amid evolving economic landscapes. Additionally, cryptocurrencies experienced a surge in investor interest and adoption throughout 2024, further bolstering our overall returns. Conversely, the Industrials sector, along with Consumption and General Public Services, underperformed. These sectors were adversely affected by market uncertainties—such as supply chain challenges and subdued consumer demand—resulting in lower returns compared to other segments.
Conclusion
The year 2024 has been one of strategic evolution and impressive achievements for Investment Society Lausanne. With a dynamic calendar of events, a refreshed leadership approach, a bold digital transformation, and good fund performance, we are poised for even greater success in the coming years. We remain committed to enhancing our community engagement, optimizing our investment strategies, and providing clear, actionable insights into the financial markets.
4.0 - Market Outlook 2025
BY REGION
U.S. Equities
U.S. equities enter 2025 with strong momentum, supported by robust economic growth, AI-driven productivity, and an expected Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle. The S&P 500 remains near record highs, with earnings growth projected at 10-15%, led by technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary. Cyclical sectors are expected to benefit from improved risk appetite, while defensive stocks (utilities, consumers staples) may underperform. However, valuations are stretched, with the S&P 500 trading at ~20× forward earnings, well above historical norms. Key macro risks include inflation persistence, higher wages squeezing corporate margins, and uncertainty around new U.S. trade policies, including potential tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, EU and Canada, which could disrupt supply chains. Geopolitical tensions—U.S.-China relations, European conflicts, and Middle East instability—remain key downside risks. That said, lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and AI innovation provide strong tailwinds. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs remain bullish, favoring AI, financials, and cyclicals, while Vanguard is cautious, citing high valuations and the risk of earnings disappointments. The consensus suggests moderate upside for U.S. stocks in 2025, with AI, infrastructure, and select industrials driving gains, while policy uncertainty and high valuations pose risks to sustained outperformance.
Potential price target of indexes in 2025
European Equities:
European equities enter 2025 with historically low valuations, trading at a 40% discount to U.S. stocks, yet sentiment is gradually improving. The Euro STOXX 600 is expected to see 7-8% EPS growth, supported by easing inflation, falling interest rates, and select sector strength, though sluggish GDP growth (~1%), political instability in France and Germany, and weak external demand from China pose risks. The ECB’s anticipated rate cuts (~5 in 2025) could support equities, but fiscal constraints in some economies remain a headwind. The Ukraine war remains a key wildcard, where de-escalation could significantly boost investor confidence, while prolonged conflict or trade tensions with the U.S. (potential tariffs) could weigh on sentiment. Sector-wise, defense, renewable energy, and consumer staples are set to outperform, while automobiles, basic materials, and some financials may struggle. Investors are leaning toward high-yield dividend stocks (3-4%) and defensive sectors as protection against uncertainty. Institutional views are mixed: BlackRock has upgraded the Euro STOXX 600 to “neutral”, citing attractive valuations, UBS remains bearish, warning of -5% EPS contraction and margin pressures, while Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, raising its index targets, especially if the Ukraine war de-escalates. Despite structural challenges, a combination of rebounding global demand, monetary easing, and geopolitical clarity could make European equities one of 2025’s most attractive contrarian bets.
MSCI Europe vs US relative perf. and EPS growth rate
Asian Equities:
Asian equities present a mixed outlook in 2025, with India and Japan expected to outperform, while China struggles with slow growth. India’s 6-7% GDP growth, structural reforms, and booming digital economy make it a top investment destination, with tech, consumer, and financials poised for strong earnings growth. Japan continues to benefit from corporate governance reforms, a weaker yen, and rising shareholder returns, making it a favorite among global investors. However, China’s economy remains sluggish (~4.5% GDP growth), weighed down by weak consumer confidence, a struggling property market, and geopolitical risks from U.S.-China tensions. Chinese stocks remain deeply undervalued (~10× forward earnings), but without strong policy stimulus, the recovery could remain weak. Asian tech, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea, is benefiting from global AI trends, while Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia) is attracting investment due to supply-chain diversification away from China. Monetary policies in the region are largely accommodative, with China easing rates and Japan beginning a gradual tightening cycle. Goldman Sachs favors Japan, J.P. Morgan is bullish on India and Taiwan, and BlackRock sees select opportunities in China despite broader skepticism. Overall, Asia ex-China is set for strong returns, driven by domestic demand, tech investment, and corporate reforms, while China’s outlook remains uncertain and dependent on policy support.
Emerging Markets:
Emerging market equities enter 2025 attractively valued (~11-12× forward earnings), with strong fundamentals in India, Latin America, and the Middle East, while China remains a wildcard. Declining inflation and expected U.S. rate cuts should ease financial conditions, supporting capital flows to EM. Growth differentials between EM and developed markets are widening, with India (~7% GDP growth) and Brazil (~2.5%) leading. Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia benefit from supply-chain diversification, while commodity exporters (Brazil, Saudi Arabia) could gain if oil and metals prices rise. Financials, tech, and consumer sectors in EM are positioned for strong earnings growth, while energy and basic materials are tied to global demand volatility. However, geopolitical risks (U.S.-China trade tensions, Middle East conflicts, and Russia-Ukraine) could trigger volatility. J.P. Morgan sees EM as an underpriced opportunity, Goldman Sachs is selectively bullish (favoring India and commodity plays), while BlackRock highlights the potential for a re-rating if global liquidity improves. Risks include currency volatility, a stronger U.S. dollar, and political uncertainty in key markets (Turkey, Argentina, South Africa). Overall, EM equities offer a compelling valuation opportunity, but a selective approach is key, with India, Latin America, and parts of Asia offering the strongest growth potential in 2025.
BY SECTOR :
Technology and Network Equipment:
The technology sector continues to dominate global markets in 2025, driven by AI adoption, cloud expansion, and semiconductor breakthroughs. AI-driven business models are fueling revenue growth across enterprise software, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure, with cloud computing and generative AI accelerating enterprise IT spending. 5G and fiber broadband expansion are also benefiting network equipment firms, as telecom operators scale up investments. U.S.-China trade tensions continue to impact semiconductor supply chains, with export controls on advanced chips leading to reshoring efforts in the U.S. and Europe. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs remain bullish on AI and cloud infrastructure, while J.P. Morgan sees valuation risks in overextended mega-caps, advocating for a broader tech rally beyond the Magnificent Seven. Tech stocks trade at premium valuations, but strong earnings (~10–15% projected growth) support the outlook. 5G penetration is expected to reach 2.7 billion global connections, driving demand for networking hardware and telecom services. While regulatory scrutiny on big tech persists, the sector’s profitability, innovation, and dominance in digital transformation make it a key market leader. Institutions are overweight tech, favoring AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, and cloud computing as 2025’s strongest growth themes.
Financial Services:
The financial sector’s performance in 2025 will be shaped by interest rate movements, economic growth, and regulatory changes. With central banks expected to cut rates, banks could benefit from lower funding costs, though net interest margins may compress as lending rates fall. A steeper yield curve could improve profitability for traditional lenders, while capital markets firms and investment banks may see a resurgence in M&A and IPO activity, as Goldman Sachs projects a 25% increase in deal volume. Regulatory shifts remain key, with U.S. deregulation expected to benefit regional banks, but Basel III rules in Europe tightening capital requirements. The rise of fintech, blockchain in payments, and AI-driven risk management is disrupting traditional banking, with digital wallets and instant payments gaining market share. Despite near-term challenges, financial sector valuations remain attractive, trading at a ~52% discount to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis.
SP500 Financials vs SP500
J.P. Morgan forecasts 7–9% earnings growth for financial firms, while BNP Paribas remains cautious about credit risks in commercial real estate. Hedge funds are favoring well-capitalized banks and asset managers, seeing them as defensive plays amid broader market volatility. Overall, financials are set for stable but moderate growth, with selective opportunities in wealth management, insurance, and fintech.
Basic Materials and Energy:
The basic materials and energy sectors enter 2025 with stable but uncertain outlooks, largely influenced by monetary policies, commodity prices, and geopolitical risks. The anticipated rate-cutting cycle by central banks could stimulate industrial activity, supporting demand for metals, oil, and gas, though sluggish global growth, particularly in China, remains a concern. The clean-energy transition is reshaping the industry, with demand for copper, lithium, and other battery materials increasing, while traditional oil and gas producers are investing in carbon capture, biofuels, and renewables to remain competitive. However, oil markets face oversupply risks, with Brent crude expected to average between $65–$75 per barrel amid ample production from OPEC+ and U.S. shale. Trade tensions, particularly U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, could inflate domestic prices but impact global supply chains, while resource nationalization in certain emerging markets poses risks to mining firms. Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices could exceed $10,000/t by 2026, citing underinvestment in supply, while J.P. Morgan projects an oversupplied oil market, with China leading demand growth for the last time before India takes over. Despite challenges, mining and energy firms remain highly profitable, supported by strong free cash flows and dividends. Investors are cautiously optimistic, focusing on metals essential for energy transition while maintaining exposure to traditional energy assets given their short-term resilience and attractive valuations.
Implied vol could react strongly to lower oil prices
Consumption & General Public Services:
The consumer sector enters 2025 with resilience, but headwinds persist, as real wage growth, inflation trends, and interest rates will determine spending power. Consumer cash flows are expected to rise ~5.2% in 2025, driven by easing inflation, strong labor markets, and stable savings, yet higher borrowing costs weigh on big-ticket discretionary purchases. Trade tensions remain a concern, with tariffs on electronics, apparel, and household goods keeping consumer prices elevated, especially in China-dependent supply chains. However, the rise of digital commerce, AI-driven demand forecasting, and automated customer service is reshaping retail, favoring e-commerce and omnichannel strategies. Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on discretionary spending, while BlackRock warns of high household debt, limiting growth for lower-income consumers. Luxury goods, travel, and hospitality remain strong, but mass-market retailers could outperform in a stable inflation environment. Public services face tight budgets, particularly in Europe, where fiscal constraints limit infrastructure investment. Institutional investors favor companies with strong pricing power, and dividend-paying staples offer stability amid economic uncertainty. Overall, while consumption remains robust, inflation persistence and interest rates will determine sector performance, with tech-savvy and defensive players best positioned for growth.
US Household Total Debt Service Ratio still Healthy even at
elevated rates
Healthcare:
The healthcare sector remains a defensive stronghold in 2025, with stable demand, innovation, and demographic tailwinds driving earnings. An aging population in the U.S., Europe, and China supports long-term growth, while regulatory risks around drug pricing and Medicare negotiations pose uncertainties. Advances in biotech, AI-driven diagnostics, and precision medicine are transforming the industry, with mRNA vaccines, gene therapies, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs gaining traction. AI is also revolutionizing medical research and hospital operations, improving efficiency and early disease detection. Valuations in the sector are attractive, as healthcare stocks underperformed in 2024, making them a potential rebound play. Fidelity sees healthcare as undervalued, with opportunities in biotech, pharma, and medical devices, while J.P. Morgan advises investors to look beyond GLP-1 hype, focusing on AI-driven innovations. M&A activity is expected to rise, as large pharma firms acquire biotech startups to strengthen drug pipelines. Overall, while regulatory pressures and cost inflation remain concerns, innovation and defensive earnings make healthcare a core allocation for 2025, particularly in undervalued segments.
Industrials:
Industrials enter 2025 with strong momentum, supported by infrastructure spending, defense investment, and automation trends. Government-funded projects in the U.S. and EU are boosting demand for machinery, transportation, and construction materials, while global defense spending, projected at $2.46 trillion, benefits aerospace and military contractors. The reshoring of manufacturing is leading to new factory construction in the U.S. and Southeast Asia, increasing demand for industrial automation and robotics. AI-driven predictive maintenance, 5G-powered smart factories, and energy-efficient manufacturing are transforming the sector, with Goldman Sachs overweighting U.S. manufacturing stocks. Supply chains are recovering, allowing firms to clear backlogs, boosting 2025 earnings. Industrial stocks trade at mid-to-high teens P/E ratios, reflecting strong growth expectations, though Europe lags due to weak German factory orders. Fitch upgraded aerospace & defense to ‘improving,’ citing high demand, while Fidelity sees value in automation and logistics players. Overall, industrials are well-positioned to outperform, benefiting from capex cycles, innovation, and defense-driven spending.
Geopolitical Uncertainties & Market Volatility
Beyond sector-specific trends, geopolitical risks remain a dominant factor in market performance. Several global developments could drive volatility throughout 2025:
Trade Policy & Tariffs: Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese imports could disrupt global supply chains, impacting sectors reliant on international trade.
U.S.-China Relations: The escalation of technology restrictions and trade disputes is creating uncertainty in semiconductor and AI industries, with potential spillover effects across global markets.
European Political Instability: Political fragmentation in France and Germany, combined with Brexit-related economic adjustments, could weaken Eurozone growth and investor confidence.
Middle East & Energy Markets: The uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production agreements and potential geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pose risks for energy prices and inflation stability.
Conclusion
The global equity outlook for 2025 is shaped by divergent regional economic trends, sectoral shifts, and heightened geopolitical risks. While global growth is projected at 3.2%, macroeconomic policies and market dynamics will drive equity performance.
In the U.S., fiscal expansion and AI-driven investments support growth, though policy uncertainties may fuel volatility. Europe faces economic stagnation despite ECB rate cuts, with select sectors like luxury and pharmaceuticals showing resilience. Asia sees India thriving on strong consumption and FDI, while China struggles with structural slowdowns and trade restrictions. The Middle East remains influenced by energy market fluctuations but is also diversifying into new industries.
Geopolitical risks, including U.S.-China trade tensions and regional conflicts, add uncertainty. As markets adjust to monetary shifts and fiscal policies, active management and sectoral rotation will be key to navigating risks and capturing opportunities in 2025.
Sources :
UBP House View, Dec 2024
J.P. Morgan, Nov 2024
BNP Paribas, Feb 2025
Yahoo Finance
Reuters
Bloomberg
5.0 - Message from the Board and conclusion
As we close this annual report, we take a moment to reflect on a year defined by achievement, growth, and the relentless pursuit of excellence. The journey of 2024 was marked by innovative initiatives, dynamic events, and the invaluable contributions of every member and partner who has shaped our community. Your passion and commitment have transformed each challenge into an opportunity for collective success.
We extend our heartfelt gratitude to the entire Investment Society community. Your unwavering support and active engagement have been the cornerstone of our progress, enabling us to build not only a robust investment fund but also a vibrant hub of ideas, collaboration, and professional growth. Every effort, every discussion, and every event has contributed to a legacy of learning and excellence that will inspire our future endeavors. Looking ahead to the Spring Semester 2025, we are proud to unveil our new board. This dedicated team, led by visionary members who embody our core values, is poised to guide the association into a new era of innovation and success. Under the leadership of President Pierre Siomash and Vice President Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, the board is committed to pioneering fresh strategies, deepening community engagement, and seizing emerging opportunities in the evolving financial landscape.
Together, we will continue to pursue excellence, foster meaningful connections, and drive forward our mission of empowering future finance professionals. May the coming semester be filled with renewed inspiration, dynamic challenges, and remarkable achievements that pave the way for a bright future.
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Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer and Pierre Siomash
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